HOW BRAZIL TRANSFERRED BILLIONS TO FOREIGN COFFEE IMPORTERS: THE INTERNATIONAL COFFEE AGREEMENT, RENT SEEKING AND EXPORT TAX REBATES

Rent seeking is well known, but empirical evidence of its effects is relatively rare. This paper analyzes the how domestic and international rent seeking caused Brazil to provide coffee export tax rebates that transferred foreign exchange to coffee importers. Although Brazil was the worlds largest exporter, it began to pay export tax rebates to selected coffee importers in 1965 and, by 1988, had paid rebates totaling $8 billion. Brazil explained these rebates as a mechanism to price discriminate among importers and expand exports within the context of the export quota imposed by the International Coffee Agreement. We show this explanation was invalid during most of the period. The net price fell for those who received rebates, causing Brazil to effectively transfer approximately$3 billion to foreign importers. The effects of the rebate policy were never recognized in Brazil, hidden largely by the complex nature of government intervention in the coffee sector.International Relations/Trade,

THE IMPACT OF CHILEAN FRUIT SECTOR DEVELOPMENT ON FEMALE EMPLOYMENT AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME

Modern fruit sector development in Chile led to agricultural employment for women, though usually only as temporary workers and often at a piece rate. Nonetheless, fruit sector employment offered women access to income and personal fulfillment previously lacking. This paper links the fruit sector to improving female and family economic welfare in rural Chile and changing gender relations. Using a unique longitudinal data set, we examine women's decisions regarding labor force participation and employment, their earnings and contributions to household income, and their attitudes toward employment to understand how new opportunities are changing women, their households, and the rural sector.Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital,

THE RISE AND DECLINE OF RENT-SEEKING ACTIVITY IN THE BRAZILIAN COFFEE SECTOR: LESSONS FROM THE IMPOSITION AND REMOVAL OF COFFEE EXPORT QUOTAS

Brazil, the worlds largest coffee exporter, encouraged efforts in the 1960s to form the International Coffee Agreement (ICA), which restricted total coffee exports via country export quotas. The quotas led to significant domestic quota rents in producing countries. This paper analyzes the effects of rent seeking in Brazil. The Brazilian Institute of Coffee (IBC), which was responsible for coffee policy, was the focus of rent seeking. The paper models the policy instruments used by the IBC, shows how rent seeking affected policy, industry efficiency and the distribution of rents, explains the causes and effects of IBC reforms in the late 1980s, and draws lessons from the experience.South America, Brazil, International Coffee Agreement, rent seeking, export tax rebates, International Relations/Trade,

INVESTMENT EFFECTS OF ENDOGENOUS AND EXOGENOUS DEPRECIATION: IMPROVED PASTURES IN URUGUAY

The depreciation rate for capital assets may have endogenous and exogenous components. Change in the exogenous component depends on technological change and/or environmental factors, shifts the production function, and independently affects profitability and investment. Change in the endogenous component does not. These hypotheses are tested using data on Uruguayan grass-legume pastures.Land Economics/Use,

A NEW APPROACH FOR ASSESSING THE COSTS OF LIVING WITH WILDLIFE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The costs of living with wildlife are assessed using Namibian subsistence farmers willingness to pay (WTP) for deterrents to attacks on crops and livestock as a measure of damage costs. A utility-theoretic approach jointly estimates household WTP for deterrent programs in two currencies, maize and cash. This has a double payoff. Use of a noncash staple increases respondent comprehension and provides more information about preferences, improving the accuracy of results. The household shadow value of maize is also identified. Significant costs from living with elephants and other types of wildlife are demonstrated. Compensation for farmers may be warranted on equity and efficiency grounds. Uncontrolled domestic cattle generate even higher costs to farmers than wildlife, highlighting the need to clarify property rights among these farmers.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The Effect of Foot and Mouth Disease on Trade and Prices in International Beef Markets

The paper develops and uses a two step quantitative model to analyze the effect of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) on international beef markets over time. Using monthly data from 1990-2002 for 7 major beef exporters and for 22 major beef importers, we use a probit equation to estimate the probability that country i exports to country j, taking account of foot and mouth status of exporter, sanitary policy of importer, beef quality, trade preferences, distance, and other factors affecting whether beef trade occurs. We then use OLS to estimate the export prices that are obtained for beef, taking account of beef quality, country per capita, trading preferences, region, per capita income, and a time trend, including terms to adjust for censorship in the first stage. Using the estimated equations, we compare the predicted change in trading partners and in the prices received by the two exporters in our sample that are not FMD free, Brazil and Uruguay, under the assumption that their status switches from having FMD to being FMD free. The model performs well. The results suggest that FMD continues to impede trade between many countries and does accordingly reduce the price received for beef from countries with FMD. Nonetheless, the "sanction" from FMD appears smaller than previously believed.International Relations/Trade,

MODELING EXTENSIVE LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS: AN APPLICATION TO SHEEP PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN

A stochastic dynamic programming model for extensive livestock systems is developed. The model optimizes sales/retention decisions when future forage production, which affects animal performance and hence profitability, is uncertain. The model is applied to sheep production in Kazakhstan to evaluate policy alternatives.Livestock Production/Industries,

Measuring Progress on the Control of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) at a Regional Level: The Minnesota N212 Regional Control Project (Rcp) as a Working Example.

Due to the highly transmissible nature of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), implementation of regional programs to control the disease may be critical. Because PRRS is not reported in the US, numerous voluntary regional control projects (RCPs) have been established. However, the effect of RCPs on PRRS control has not been assessed yet. This study aims to quantify the extent to which RCPs contribute to PRRS control by proposing a methodological framework to evaluate the progress of RCPs. Information collected between July 2012 and June 2015 from the Minnesota Voluntary Regional PRRS Elimination Project (RCP-N212) was used. Demography of premises (e.g. composition of farms with sows = SS and without sows = NSS) was assessed by a repeated analysis of variance. By using general linear mixed-effects models, active participation of farms enrolled in the RCP-N212, defined as the decision to share (or not to share) PRRS status, was evaluated and used as a predictor, along with other variables, to assess the PRRS trend over time. Additionally, spatial and temporal patterns of farmers' participation and the disease dynamics were investigated. The number of farms enrolled in RCP-N212 and its geographical coverage increased, but the proportion of SS and NSS did not vary significantly over time. A significant increasing (p<0.001) trend in farmers' decision to share PRRS status was observed, but with NSS producers less willing to report and a large variability between counties. The incidence of PRRS significantly (p<0.001) decreased, showing a negative correlation between degree of participation and occurrence of PRRS (p<0.001) and a positive correlation with farm density at the county level (p = 0.02). Despite a noted decrease in PRRS, significant spatio-temporal patterns of incidence of the disease over 3-weeks and 3-kms during the entire study period were identified. This study established a systematic approach to quantify the effect of RCPs on PRRS control. Despite an increase in number of farms enrolled in the RCP-N212, active participation is not ensured. By evaluating the effect of participation on the occurrence of PRRS, the value of sharing information among producers may be demonstrated, in turn justifying the existence of RCPs

Using Machine Learning to Predict Swine Movements within a Regional Program to Improve Control of Infectious Diseases in the US.

Between-farm animal movement is one of the most important factors influencing the spread of infectious diseases in food animals, including in the US swine industry. Understanding the structural network of contacts in a food animal industry is prerequisite to planning for efficient production strategies and for effective disease control measures. Unfortunately, data regarding between-farm animal movements in the US are not systematically collected and thus, such information is often unavailable. In this paper, we develop a procedure to replicate the structure of a network, making use of partial data available, and subsequently use the model developed to predict animal movements among sites in 34 Minnesota counties. First, we summarized two networks of swine producing facilities in Minnesota, then we used a machine learning technique referred to as random forest, an ensemble of independent classification trees, to estimate the probability of pig movements between farms and/or markets sites located in two counties in Minnesota. The model was calibrated and tested by comparing predicted data and observed data in those two counties for which data were available. Finally, the model was used to predict animal movements in sites located across 34 Minnesota counties. Variables that were important in predicting pig movements included between-site distance, ownership, and production type of the sending and receiving farms and/or markets. Using a weighted-kernel approach to describe spatial variation in the centrality measures of the predicted network, we showed that the south-central region of the study area exhibited high aggregation of predicted pig movements. Our results show an overlap with the distribution of outbreaks of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, which is believed to be transmitted, at least in part, though animal movements. While the correspondence of movements and disease is not a causal test, it suggests that the predicted network may approximate actual movements. Accordingly, the predictions provided here might help to design and implement control strategies in the region. Additionally, the methodology here may be used to estimate contact networks for other livestock systems when only incomplete information regarding animal movements is available